Vol. 36, issue 04, article # 7

Babanov B. A., Semenov V. A., Akperov M. G., Mokhov I. I., Keenlyside N. S. Occurrence of winter atmospheric circulation regimes in Euro-Atlantic region and associated extreme weather anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. 2023. V. 36. No. 04. P. 304–312. DOI: 10.15372/AOO20230407 [in Russian].
Copy the reference to clipboard
Abstract:

Quantitative estimates of regional features of the frequency distribution of extreme temperature, precipitation, and wind anomalies in the winter months in the extratropical zone of the Northern Hemisphere associated with atmospheric circulation regimes in the Euro-Atlantic sector are obtained. Using the k-means cluster analysis for the daily geopotential height fields from the ERA5 reanalysis for 1979–2021 four winter atmospheric circulation regimes are identified in the Euro-Atlantic sector corresponding to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the positive (NAO+) and negative (NAO-) phases, Scandinavian blocking (SCAND), and regime with anomalously high pressure over the North Atlantic and low pressure over Europe (ATL). Characteristic fields and frequencies of occurrence of the regimes are analyzed. The NAO+ and NAO- regimes turned out to be asymmetric in the spatial structure with significantly different frequencies of occurrence (33% and 19%, respectively). Spatial distributions of the frequencies of occurrence of extreme weather anomalies associated with the regimes are also asymmetric. For all regimes, an asymmetric frequency of occurrence of positive and negative temperature anomalies is noted. During the period under study, no statistically significant trends in the seasonal frequency of the regimes and no large areas with statistically significant trends in the average seasonal fields of the regimes near the areas of geopotential height anomalies maxima are found, which can indicate the stability of these regimes under recent climate changes.
 

Keywords:

atmospheric circulation, weather regimes, cluster analysis, weather anomalies, North-Atlantic Oscillation, Euro-Atlantics

References:

1. Serreze M.C., Barry R.G. Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis // Glob. Planet. Change. 2011. V. 77, N 1–2. P. 85–96.
2. Corti S., Molteni F., Palmer T.N. Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes // Nature. 1999. V. 398, N 6730. P. 799–802.
3. Barnston A.G., Livezey R.E. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns // Mon. Weather Rev. 1987. V. 115, N 6. P. 1083–1126.
4. Mokhov I.I., Eliseev A.V., Khandorf D., Petukhov V.K., Detloff K., Vajskhajmer F., Khvorost'yanov D.V. Severoatlanticheskoe kolebanie: diagnoz i modelirovanie desyatiletnej izmenchivosti i ee dolgoperiodnoj evolyutsii // Izv. RAN. Fiz. atmosf. i okeana. 2000. V. 36, N 5. P. 605–616.
5. Hurrell J.W., Van Loon H. Decadal variations in climate associated with the north Atlantic oscillation // Clim. Change. 1997. V. 36. P. 301–326.
6. Kurbatkin G.P., Smirnov V.D. Mezhgodovye variatsii temperatury troposfery, svyazannye s dekadnymi izmeneniyami severoatlanticheskogo kolebaniya // Izv. RAN. Fiz. atmosf. i okeana. 2010. V. 46, N 4. P. 435–447.
7. Bardin M.Yu., Platova T.V. Dolgoperiodnye variatsii pokazatelej ekstremal'nosti temperaturnogo rezhima na territorii Rossii i ikh svyaz' s izmeneniyami krupnomasshtabnoj atmosfernoj tsirkulyatsii i global'nym potepleniem // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2019. N 12. P. 5–19.
8. Robertson A.W., Mechoso C.R., Kim Y.J. The influence of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on the North Atlantic Oscillation // J. Clim. 2000. V. 13, N 1. P. 122–138.
9. Jaiser R., Dethloff K., Handorf D., Rinke A., Cohen J. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation // Tellus A. 2012. V. 64, N 1. P. 11595.
10. Monahan A.H., Fyfe J.C., Flato G.M. A regime view of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric variability and change under global warming // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2000. V. 27, N 8. P. 1139–1142.
11. Fabiano F., Meccia V.L., Davini P., Ghinassi P., Corti S. A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in northern mid-latitudes // Weather Clim. Dyn. 2021. V. 2, N 1. P. 163–180.
12. Huth R., Beck C., Philipp A., Demuzere M., Ustrnul Z., Cahynová M., Kyselý J., Tveito O.E. Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns: Recent advances and applications // Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 2008. V. 1146, N 1. P. 105–152.
13. Baur F., Hess P., Nagel H. Kalender der grosswetterlagen Europas 1881–1939. Bad Homburg. 1944. 35 p.
14. Dzerdzeevskij B.L., Kurganskaya V.M., Vitvitskaya Z.M. Tipizatsiya tsirkulyatsionnykh mekhanizmov v severnom polusharii i kharakteristika sinopticheskikh sezonov // Tr. NIU GUGMS. L.: Gidrometizdat, 1946. 80 p.
15. Vangengejm G.Ya. Osnovy makrotsirkulyatsionnogo metoda dolgosrochnykh meteorologicheskikh prognozov dlya Arktiki // Tr. AANII. 1952. V. 34. 314 p.
16. James P.M. An objective classification method for Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen over Europe // Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2007. V. 88, N 1. P. 17–42.
17. James P.M. An assessment of European synoptic variability in Hadley Centre Global Environmental models based on an objective classification of weather regimes // Clim. Dyn. 2006. V. 27, N 2. P. 215–231.
18. Kyselý J., Huth R. Changes in atmospheric circulation over Europe detected by objective and subjective methods // Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2006. V. 85, N 1. P. 19–36.
19. Grotjahn R., Black R., Leung R., Wehner M.F., Barlow M., Bosilovich M., Gershunov A., Gutowski Jr.W.J., Gyakum J.R., Katz R.W., Lee Y.-Y., Lim Y.-K., Prabhat. North American extreme temperature events and related large scale meteorological patterns: A review of statistical methods, dynamics, modeling, and trends // Clim. Dyn. 2016. V. 46, N 3. P. 1151–1184.
20. Philipp A., Della-Marta P.M., Jacobeit J., Fereday D.R., Jones P.D., Moberg A., Wanner H. Long-term variability of daily North Atlantic–European pressure patterns since 1850 classified by simulated annealing clustering // J. Clim. 2007. V. 20, N 16. P. 4065–4095.
21. Santos J.A., Corte-Real J., Leite S.M. Weather regimes and their connection to the winter rainfall in Portugal // Int. J. Climatol. 2005. V. 25, N 1. P. 33–50.
22. van der Wiel K., Bloomfield H.C., Lee R.W., Stoop L.P., Blackport R., Screen J.A. Selten F.M. The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand // Environ. Res. Lett. 2019. V. 14, N 9. P. 094010.
23. Crasemann B., Handorf D., Jaiser R., Dethloff K., Nakamura T., Ukita J., Yamazaki K. Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over the North-Atlantic–Eurasian region be associated with Arctic Sea ice loss? // Polar Sci. 2017. V. 14. P. 9–20.
24. Yao Y., Luo D. An asymmetric spatiotemporal connection between the Euro-Atlantic blocking within the NAO life cycle and European climates // Adv. Atmos. Sci. 2018. V. 35, N 7. P. 796–812.
25. Yiou P., Nogaj M. Extreme climatic events and weather regimes over the North Atlantic: When and where? // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004. V. 31, N 7.
26. Yiou P., Goubanova K., Li Z.X., Nogaj M. Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation // Nonlinear Processes Geophys. 2008. V. 15, N 3. P. 365–378.
27. Cattiaux J., Vautard R., Cassou C., Yiou P., Masson-Delmotte V., Codron F. Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2010. V. 37, N 20.
28. Hersbach H., Bell B., Berrisford P., Hirahara S., Horányi A., Muñoz-Sabater J., Nicolas J., Peubey C., Radu R., Schepers D., Simmons A., Soci C., Abdalla S., Abellan X., Balsamo G., Bechtold P., Biavati G., Bidlot J., Bonavita M., De Chiara G., Dahlgren P., Dee D., Diamantakis M., Dragani R., Flemming J., Forbes R., Fuentes M., Geer A., Haimberger L., Healy S., Hogan R.J., Hólm E., Janisková M., Keeley S., Laloyaux P., Lopez Ph., Lupu C., Radnoti G., de Rosnay P., Rozum I., Vamborg F., Villaume S., Thépaut J.-N. The ERA5 global reanalysis // Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2020. V. 146, N 730. P. 1999–2049.
29. Michelangeli P.A., Vautard R., Legras B. Weather regimes: Recurrence and quasi stationarity // J. Atmos. Sci. 1995. V. 52, N 8. P. 1237–1256.
30. Cassou C. Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation // Nature. 2008. V. 455, N 7212. P. 523–527.
31. Fabiano F., Christensen H.M., Strommen K., Athanasiadis P., Baker A., Schiemann R., Corti S. Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: Impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance // Clim. Dyn. 2020. V. 54, N 11. P. 5031–5048.
32. Strommen K., Mavilia I., Corti S., Matsueda M., Davini P., von Hardenberg J., Vidale P.-L., Mizuta R. The sensitivity of Euro-Atlantic regimes to model horizontal resolution // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2019. V. 46, N 13. P. 7810–7818.
33. Fereday D.R., Knight J.R., Scaife A.A., Folland C.K., Philipp A. Cluster analysis of North Atlantic–European circulation types and links with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures // J. Clim. 2008. V. 21, N 15. P. 3687–3703.
34. Dawson A., Palmer T.N., Corti S. Simulating regime structures in weather and climate prediction models // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012. V. 39, N 21.
35. Straus D.M., Corti S., Molteni F. Circulation regimes: Chaotic variability versus SST-forced predictability // J. Clim. 2007. V. 20, N 10. P. 2251–2272.
36. Vautard R. Multiple weather regimes over the North Atlantic: Analysis of precursors and successors // Mon. Weather Rev. 1990. V. 118, N 10. P. 2056–2081.
37. Climate Prediction Center NCEP. URL: https://ftp. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim (data obrashcheniya: 1.09.2022).
38. Cassou C., Terray L., Hurrell J.W., Deser C. North Atlantic winter climate regimes: Spatial asymmetry, stationarity with time, and oceanic forcing // J. Clim. 2004. V. 17, N 5. P. 1055–1068.
39. Christidis N., Stott P.A. Changes in the geopotential height at 500 hPa under the influence of external climatic forcings // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2015. V. 42, N 24. P. 10798–10806.
40. Shukurov K.A., Semenov V.A. Kharakteristiki zimnikh anomalij prizemnoj temperatury v Moskve v 1970–2016 years pri sokrashchenii ploshchadi morskikh l'dov v Barentsevom more // Izv. RAN. Fiz. atmosf. i okeana. 2018. V. 54, N 1. P. 13–27.