Vol. 34, issue 01, article # 6

Kalinin N. A., Shikhov A. N., Bykov A. V., Pomortseva A. A., Abdullin R. K., Azhigov I. O. Conditions for the formation and short-term forecasting of hazardous weather events in the Ural region in the warm period of 2020. // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. 2021. V. 34. No. 01. P. 46–56. DOI: 10.15372/AOO20210106 [in Russian].
Copy the reference to clipboard
Abstract:

The conditions for the formation are considered and the short-term forecast accuracy is estimated for six convective hazardous weather events or outbreaks occurred in the Urals and eastern part of European Russia in the warm period of 2020. Information on large hail, heavy rainfall, squalls, and tornadoes has been compiled from several data sources; it includes data from weather stations, damage reports, and analysis of forest cover disturbances based on Sentinel-2 satellite images. The short-term forecasts were derived by the ingredient-based approach based on GFS and GEM global atmospheric models and explicit simulation of convection using the WRF mesoscale atmospheric model.

Keywords:

convective hazardous weather events, short-term forecast, WRF model, global atmospheric models, ingredient-based approach, explicit simulation of convection

Figures:
References:

1. Prirodnye opasnosti Russia. V. 5. Gidrometeorologicheskie opasnosti / pod red. G.S. Golitsyna, A.A. Vasil'eva. M.: Kruk, 2001. 296 p.
2. Korshunov A.A., Shajmardanov V.M., Shajmardanov M.Z., Shamin S.I. Povtoryaemost' opasnyh gidrometeorologicheskih yavlenij, nanesshih sotsial'no-ekonomicheskij ushcherb v 1998–2017 years // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2019. N 11. P. 13–19.
3. Chernokulsky A., Kurgansky M., Mokhov I., Shikhov A., Azhigov I., Selezneva E., Zakharchenko D., Antonesku B., Kühne T. Tornadoes in Northern Eurasia: From the Middle Age to the Information Era // Mon. Weather Rev. 2020. V. 148. P. 3081–3110.
4. Dmitrieva T.G., Peskov B.E. Chislennyj prognoz s mezosinopticheskim utochneniem dvuh sluchaev osobo sil'nyh shkvalov na evropejskoj chasti Rossii letom 2010 year // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2013. N 2. P. 18–30.
5. Kalinin N.A., Shihov A.N., Bykov A.V. Prognoz mezomasshtabnyh konvektivnyh sistem na Urale s pomoshch'yu modeli WRF i dannyh distantsionnogo zondirovaniya // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2017. N 1. P. 16–28.
6. Rivin G.S., Vil'fand R.M., Kiktev D.B., Rozinkina I.A., Tudrij K.O., Blinov D.V., Varencov M.I., Samsonov T.E., Bundel' A.Yu., Kirsanov A.A., Zaharchenko D.I. Sistema chislennogo prognozirovaniya yavlenij pogody, vklyuchaya opasnye, dlya Moskovskogo megapolisa: razrabotka prototipa // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2019. N 11. P. 33–45.
7. Weisman M.L, Davis C., Wang W., Manning K.W., Klemp J.B. Experiences with 0–36-h explicit convective forecasts with the WRF-ARW model // Weather Forecast. 2008. V. 23. P. 407–437.
8. Kurbatova M.M., Rubinshtejn K.G. Gibridnyj metod prognoza poryvov vetra // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2018. V. 31, N 7. P. 523–529.
9. Rasmussen E.N., Blanchard D.O. A baseline climatology of sounding-derived supercell and tornado forecast parameters // Weather Forecast. 1998. V. 13. P. 1148–1164.
10. Brooks H.E., Doswell III C.A., Zhang X., Chernokulsky A., Tochimoto E., Hanstrum B., Nascimento E., Sills D., Antonescu B., Barrett B. A Century of Progress in Atmospheric and Related Sciences: Celebrating the American Meteorological Society Centennial. 2019. Chapter 18. P. 18.1–18.41.
11. Shafer C.M., Mercer A.E., Doswell III C.A., Richman M.B., Leslie L.M. Evaluation of WRF forecasts of tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks when initialized with synoptic-scale input // Mon. Weather Rev. 2010. V. 137. P. 1250–1271.
12. Taszarek M., Czernecki B., Walczakiewicz S., Mazur A., Kolendowicz L. An isolated tornadic supercell of 14 July 2012 in Poland – A prediction technique within the use of coarse-grid WRF simulation // Atmos. Res. 2016. V. 178–179. P. 367–379.
13. Novickij M.A., Pavlyukov Yu.B., Shmerlin B.YA., Mahnorylova S.V., Serebryanik N.I., Petrichenko S.A., Tereb L.A., Kalmykova O.V. Bashkirskij smerch: vozmozhnosti analiza i prognoza smercheopasnoj situacii // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2016. N 10. P. 30–40.
14. Novickij M.A., Shmerlin B.Ya., Petrichenko S.A., Tereb L.A., Kalmykova O.V. O sovmestnom raschete polej vertikal'noj skorosti i konvektivnyh indeksov v modeli WRF dlya analiza i prognoza smercheopasnyh situacij // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2018. N 9. P. 14–26.
15. Bykov A.V., Shihov A.N. Prognoz mezomasshtabnyh konvektivnyh sistem s primeneniem global'nyh i mezomasshtabnyh gidrodinamicheskih modelej // Sovremennye problemy distancionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa. 2018. V. 15, N 2. P. 213–224.
16. Kalinin N.A., Shihov A.N., Bykov A.V., Azhigov I.O. Usloviya vozniknoveniya i kratkosrochnyj prognoz sil'nyh shkvalov i smerchej na evropejskoj territorii Russia // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2019. V. 32, N 1. P. 62–69; Kalinin N.A., Shikhov A.N., Bykov A.V., Azhigov I.O. Conditions for the appearance and short-time prediction of strong squalls and tornadoes in the European part of Russia // Atmos. Ocean. Opt. 2019. V. 32, N 3. P. 334–344.
17. Xue M., Wang D., Gao J., Brewster K., Droegemeier K.K. The advanced regional prediction system (arps), storm-scale numerical weather prediction and data assimilation // Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 2003. V. 82. P. 139–170.
18. Vel'tishchev N.F., Zhupanov V.D., Pavlyukov Yu.B. Kratkosrochnyj prognoz sil'nyh osadkov i vetra s pomoshch'yu razreshayushchih konvekciyu modelej WRF // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2011. N 1. P. 5–18.
19. Dmitrieva T.G., Peskov B.E. Sinopticheskie usloviya, naukasting i model'nye prognozy sil'nyh shkvalov i smerchej v Bashkirii 1 june 2007 year i 29 august 2014 year // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2016. N 10. P. 16–29.
20. Romanskij S.O., Verbickaya E.M., Ageeva S.V., Istomin D.P. Usloviya vozniknoveniya smercha v Blagoveshchenske 31 july 2011 year // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2018. N 9. P. 26–35.
21. Rubinshtejn K.G., Gubenko I.M., Ignatov R.Yu., Tihonenko N.D., Yusupov Yu.I. Eksperimenty po usvoeniyu dannyh seti grozopelengacii // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2019. V. 32, N 11. P. 936–941; Rubinstein K.G., Gubenko I.M., Ignatov R.Yu., Tikhonenko N.D., Yusupov Yu.I. Experiments on lightning detection network data assimilation // Atmos. Ocean. Opt. 2020. V. 33, N 2. P. 219–228.
22. Varentsov M., Wouters H., Platonov V., Konstantinov P. Megacity-induced mesoclimatic effects in the lower Atmosphere: A modeling study for multiple summers over Moscow, Russia // Atmosphere. 2018. V. 9. P. 50.
23. Opasnye yavleniya pogody na territorii Sibiri i Urala. Spravochnik specialista. L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1987. Pt. 3. 200 p.
24. Shikhov A.N., Perminova E.S., Perminov S.I. Satellite‑based analysis of the spatial patterns of fire and storm‑related forest disturbances in the Ural region, Russia // Natural Hazards. 2019. V. 97. P. 283–308.
25. Shikhov A.N., Chernokulsky A.V., Azhigov I.O., Semakina A.V. A satellite-derived database for stand-replacing windthrows in boreal forests of the European Russia in 1986–2017 // Earth Syst. Sci. DOI: 10.5194/essd-2020-91, in review, 2020.
26. Chernokul'skij A.V., Kurganskij M.V., Zaharchenko D.I., Mohov I.I. Usloviya formirovaniya i harakteristiki sil'nogo smercha na YUzhnom Urale 29 august 2014 year // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2015. N 12. P. 29–38.
27. Shihov A.N., Azhigov I.O., Bykov A.V. Smerchi i shkvaly na Urale v june 2017 year: analiz po sputnikovym dannym // Sovremennye problemy distancionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa. 2018. N 1. P. 272–281.
28. Shihov A.N., Bykov A.V. Izuchenie dvuh sluchaev sil'nyh smerchej v Predural'e // Sovremennye problemy distancionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa. 2015. V. 12, N 3. P. 124–133.
29. Arhiv fakticheskoj pogody po meteostanciyam [Elektronnyj resurs]. URL: http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/archive.php (data obrashcheniya: 12.10.2020).
30. Sounding Data Archive [Electronic resource]. URL: http://weather.uwyo. edu/upperair/np.html (last access: 12.10.2020).
31. European Severe Weather Database [Electronic resource]. URL: https://eswd.eu/ (last access: 12.10.2020).
32. Saha S., Moorthi S., Pan H.-L., Wu X., Wang J., Nadiga S., Tripp P., Kistler R., Woollen J., Behringer D., Liu H., Stokes D., Grumbine R., Gayno G., Wang J., Hou Y.-T., Chuangd S., Van Den Dool H., Kumar A., Wang W., Long C., Chelliah M., Xue Y., Huang B., Schemm J.-K., Ebisuzaki W., Lin R., Xie P., Chen M., Zhou S., Higgins W., Zou C.-Z., Liu Q., Chen Y., Han Y., Cucurull L., Reynolds R.W., Rutledge G., Goldberg M. The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis // Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2010. V. 91. P. 1015–1057.
33. Eumetsat Earth Observation Portal [Electronic resource]. URL: https://eoportal.eumetsat.int/userMgmt/ login.faces (last access: 12.10.2020).
34. Powers J.G., Klemp J.B., Skamarock W.C., Davis C.A, Duhia J., Gill D.O., Coen J.L., Gochis D.J., Ahmadov R., Peckham S.E., Grell G.A., Michalakes J., Trahan S., Benjamin S.G., Alexander C.R., Dimego G.J., Wang W., Schwartz C.S., Romine G.S., Liu Z., Snyder C., Chen F., Barlage M.J., Yu W., Duda M.G. The weather research and forecasting model: Overview, system efforts, and future directions // Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2017. V. 98. P. 1717–1737.
35. Grieser J. Convection parameters [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.juergen-grieser.de/CovectionParameters/Convection Parameters.pdf (last access: 12.10.2020).
36. Doswell C.A., Schultz D.M. On the use of indices and parameters in forecasting severe storms // Electron. Severe Storms Meteorology. V. 1, N 3. URL: http: //www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/viewArticle/11/12 (last access: 12.09.2020).
37. Sin'kevich A.A., Mihajlovskij Yu.P., Toropova M.L., Popov V.B., Staryh D.S., Dovgalyuk Yu.A., Veremej N.E. Stroenie grozovogo oblaka so smerchem i zavisimost' chastoty molnij ot ego harakteristik // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2020. V. 33, N 9. P. 705–709.
38. Sin'kevich A.A., Popov V.B., Mihajlovskij Yu.P., Toropova M.L., Dovgalyuk Yu.A., Veremej N.E., Staryh D.S. Harakteristiki kuchevo-dozhdevogo oblaka s vodyanym smerchem nad ladozhskim ozerom po dannym distancionnyh izmerenij // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2020. V. 33, N 2. P. 153–158; Sin’kevich A.A., Popov V.B., Mikhailovskii Yu.P., Toropova M.L., Dovgalyuk Yu.A., Veremei N.E., Starykh D.S. Characteristics of cumulonimbus with waterspout over ladoga lake from remote measurements // Atmos. Ocean. Opt. 2020. V. 33, N 4. P. 387–392.

Back