Vol. 20, issue 07, article # 14

pdf Shalygina I. Yu., Kuznetsova I. N., Nahaev M. I., Lesina E. A., Zvyagintsev A. M. Surface ozone forecasting in a big city (by the example of Moscow). // Atmospheric and oceanic optics. 2007. V. 20. No. 07. P. 594-600.
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The variations of trace gas admixtures on the territory of a big city were analyzed based on the data on routine measurements at the "Mosecomonitoring" network, which allowed us to get new ideas about the inhomogeneity of the field of trace gas admixtures, including surface ozone. The regression models of the daily maximum surface ozone concentration are elaborated for the first time for four types of urban territories, which differ in the level of man-caused stress. Maximum ozone concentration in previous day (inertia) and meteorological pollution potential (MPP) turned out to be the most significant predictors. It is determined that the inertia contribution attains 80-90%, but the MPP index becomes more informative in the events of high ozone concentrations. The MPP index, included in calculation equations, showed its advantage over the use of individual meteorological parameters in statistic models. The calculation equations are obtained for the warm season. A comparison of the calculated maximum ozone concentrations with the inertia forecast showed a success of the methodical forecast.