Vol. 23, issue 02, article # 7

Zvyagintsev A. M., Belikov I. B., Elansky N. F., Kakajanova G., Kuznetsova I. N., Tarasova O. A., Shalygina I. Yu. Statistical modelling of daily maximal concentrations of the surface ozone.. // Optika Atmosfery i Okeana. 2010. V. 23. No. 02. P. 127-135 [in Russian].
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A statistical model of the daily maximal concentration of the surface ozone is proposed. The model is based on relations of surface ozone and its predictors. Among the predictors of the surface ozone are the temperature, relative humidity, the mean wind speed in the planetary boundary layer, concentrations of other minor gases, and the value of "meteorological pollution potential", which can characterize adverse meteorological conditions. Our statistical model for surface ozone forecasting uses actual meteorological parameters and their forecasting values. The most significant predictors of the surface ozone for the Moscow region are "meteorological pollution potential" and anomalies (deviations from norms) of temperature, relative humidity, surface ozone in previous day. The model was testified for observations in the Moscow region and at German stations. Such model is better than "climatic" and "inertia" models and can ensure determination coefficient ca. 50%.


surface ozone, statistical modeling, air quality forecasting