Vol. 38, issue 05, article # 5

Abstract:

Based on a developed and adapted method for identifying Rossby wave breaking (RWB), which accounts for the specifics of stratospheric circulation, an analysis of the conditions for the occurrence of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Northern Hemisphere was conducted. The method relies on examining the geometry of potential vorticity contours in the stratosphere at the 850 K level using ERA5 reanalysis data. It is shown that anomalous RWB processes in November and December play a key role in preparing for the onset of SSWs. Most of the analyzed SSW events are associated with an increase in the number of RWB events in the Asia-Pacific (AP) region in November and December, and occasionally in January. In cases where SSW initiation is linked to RWB over the Atlantic and Europe, it is also preceded by RWB anomalies in the AP region. For the identified types of wave breaking in the stratosphere, atmospheric blocking is characteristic in the troposphere, accompanied by negative near-surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia and/or North America. The increased frequency of early and middle major SSW events aligns with the previously identified trend of enhanced negative temperature responses to atmospheric blocking in the Northern Hemisphere.

Keywords:

stratosphere, planetary wave breaking, Rossby wave breaking, sudden stratospheric warming, circulation anomaly, temperature

Figures:

References:

1. Charney J.G., Drazin P.G. Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from the lower into the upper atmosphere // J. Geophys. Res. 1961. V. 66, N 1. P. 83–109. DOI: 10.1029/jz066i001p00083.
2. McIntyre M.E., Palmer T.N. Breaking planetary waves in the stratosphere // Nature. 1983. V. 305, N 5935. P. 593–600. DOI: 10.1038/305593a0.
3. Krupchatnikov V.N., Borovko I.V. Rossby wave breaking and blocking events associated with some atmospheric circulation regimes in the Northern hemisphere based on a climate system model (PlaSim-ICMMG-1.0) // IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 2020. V. 611. P. 012015. DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/611/1/012015.
4. Baldwin M.P., Ayarzagüena B., Birner T., Butchart N., Butler A.H., Charlton-Perez A.J., Domeisen D.I.V., Garfinkel C.I., Garny H., Gerber E.P., Hegglin M.I., Langematz U., Pedatella N.M. Sudden stratospheric warmings // Rev. Geophys. 2021. V. 59, N 1. DOI: 10.1029/2020rg000708.
5. Zorkaltseva O.S., Antokhina O.Yu., Antokhin P.N. Dolgovremennaya izmenchivost' parametrov vnezapnykh stratosfernykh poteplenii po dannym reanaliza ERA5 // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2023. V. 36, N 3. P. 200–208. DOI: 10.15372/AOO20230306; Zorkaltseva O.S., Antokhina O.Yu., Antokhin P.N. Long-term variations in parameters of sudden stratospheric warmings according to ERA5 reanalysis data // Atmos. Ocean. Opt. 2023. V. 36, N 4. P. 370–378.
6. Kim B.-M., Son S.-W., Min S.-K., Jeong J.-H., Kim S.-J., Zhang X., Shim T., Yoon J.-H. Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea – ice loss // Nat. Commun. 2014. V. 5, N 1. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5646.
7. Lawrence Z.D., Perlwitz J., Butler A.H., Manney G.L., Newman P.A., Lee S.H., Nash E.R. The remarkably strong arctic stratospheric polar vortex of winter 2020: Links to record-breaking Arctic oscillation and ozone loss // J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 2020. V. 125, N 22. DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033271.
8. Tsvetkova N.D., Vargin P.N., Luk'yanov A.N., Kiryushov B.M., Yushkov V.A., Khattatov V.U. Issledovanie khimicheskogo razrusheniya ozona i dinamicheskikh protsessov v stratosfere Arktiki zimoi 2019–2020 years // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2021. N 9. P. 70–83.
9. Wohltmann I., Gathen P., Lehmann R., Deckelmann H., Manney G.L., Davies J., Tarasick D., Jepsen N., Kivi R., Lyall N., Rex M. Chemical evolution of the exceptional Arctic stratospheric winter 2019/2020 compared to previous Arctic and Antarctic winters // J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 2021. V. 126, N 18. DOI: 10.1029/2020jd034356.
10. Antokhina O.Yu., Gochakov A.V., Zorkaltseva O.S., Antokhin P.N., Krupchatnikov V.N. Oprokidyvanie voln Rossbi v stratosfere. Part I. Klimatologiya i dolgovremennaya izmenchivost' // Optika atmosf. i okeana. 2024. V. 37, N 5. P. 415–422. DOI: 10.15372/AOO20240509; Antokhina O.Yu., Gochakov A.V., Zorkaltseva O.S., Antokhin P.N., Krupchatnikov V.N. Rossby wave breaking in the stratosphere: Part I – Climatology and long-term variability // Atmos. Ocean. Opt. 2024. V. 37, N 4. P. 514–521.
11. Sun L., Robinson W.A., Chen G. The predictability of stratospheric warming events: More from the troposphere or the stratosphere? // J. Atmos. Sci. 2012. V. 69, N 2. P. 768–783. DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-11-0144.1.
12. Hitchcock P., Haynes P.H. Stratospheric control of planetary waves // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2016. V. 43, N 22. DOI: 10.1002/2016gl071372.
13. Martius O., Polvani L.M., Davies H.C. Blocking precursors to stratospheric sudden warming events // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009. V. 36, N 14. DOI: 10.1029/2009gl038776.
14. Peings Y. Ural blocking as a driver of early – winter stratospheric warmings // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2019. V. 46, N 10. P. 5460–5468. DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082097.
15. Garfinkel C.I., Feldstein S.B., Waugh D.W., Yoo C., Lee S. Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden-Julian Oscillation // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012. V. 39, N 18. DOI: 10.1029/2012gl053144.
16. Didenko K.A., Pogorel'tsev A.I. Issledovanie vzaimodeistvii statsionarnykh planetarnykh voln s ispol'zovaniem model'nykh dannykh MSVA // Trudy Voenno-kosmicheskoi akademii im. A.F. Mozhaiskogo. 2020. N 674. P. 166–170.
17. Holton J.M., Tan H.-C. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere Lower Stratosphere // J. Met. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II. 1982. V. 60, N 1. P. 140–148. DOI: 10.2151/jmsj1965.60.1_140.
18. Okui H., Koshin D., Watanabe S., Sato K. Roles of gravity waves in preconditioning of a stratospheric sudden warming // J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 2024. V. 129, N 10. DOI: 10.1029/2023JD039881.
19. Zhang Y., Yi Y., Ren X., Liu Y. Statistical characteristics and long-term variations of major sudden stratospheric warming events // J. Meteorol. Res. 2021. V. 35, N 3. P. 416–427. DOI: 10.1007/s13351-021-0166-3.
20. Vargin P.N., Kostrykin S.V., Rakushina E.V., Volodin E.M., Pogorel'tsev A.I. Issledovanie izmenchivosti dat vesennikh perestroek tsirkulyatsii stratosfery i ob"ema polyarnykh stratosfernykh oblakov v Arktike po dannym modelirovaniya i reanaliza // Izv. RAN. Fiz. atmosf. i okeana. 2020. V. 56, N 5. P. 1–13. DOI: 10.31857/S0002351520050119.
21. Hauchecorne A., Claud C., Keckhut P., Mariaccia A. Stratospheric final warmings fall into two categories with different evolution over the course of the year // Commun. Earth Environ. 2022. V. 3, N 1. DOI: 10.1038/s43247-021-00335-z.
22. Baldwin M.P., Dunkerton T.J. The stratospheric major warming of early December 1987 // J. Atmos. Sci. 1989. V. 46, N 18. P. 2863–2884. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046%3C2863:tsmwoe%3E2.0.co;2.
23. Manney G.L., Sabutis J.L., Swinbank R. A unique stratospheric warming event in November 2000 // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2001. V. 28, N 13. P. 2629–2632. DOI: 10.1029/2001gl012973.
24. Mukougawa H., Hirooka T. Predictability of stratospheric sudden warming: A case study for 1998/99 winter // Mon. Weather Rev. 2004. V. 132, N 7. P. 1764–1776. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132%3C1764:posswa%3E2.0.co;2.
25. Manney G.L. The remarkable 2003–2004 winter and other recent warm winters in the Arctic stratosphere since the late 1990s // J. Geophys. Res. 2005. V. 110, N D4. DOI: 10.1029/2004jd005367.
26. Naujokat B. The early major warming in December 2001 – exceptional? // Geophys. Res. Lett. 2002. V. 29, N 21. DOI: 10.1029/2002gl015316.
27. Rao J., Garfinkel C.I., Chen H., White I.P. The 2019 new year stratospheric sudden warming and its real – time predictions in multiple S2S models // J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 2019. V. 124, N 21. P. 11155–11174. DOI: 10.1029/2019jd030826.
28. Randel W.J., Boville B.A. Observations of a major stratospheric warming during December 1984 // J. Atmos. Sci. 1987. V. 44, N 15. P. 2179–2186. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044%3C2179:ooamsw%3E2.0.co;2.
29. Lu Q., Rao J., Liang Z., Guo D., Luo J., Liu S., Wang C., Wang T. The sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021 // Environ. Res. Lett. 2021. V. 16, N 8. P. 084029. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac12f4.
30. Coy L., Eckermann S., Hoppel K. Planetary wave breaking and tropospheric forcing as seen in the stratospheric sudden warming of 2006 // J. Atmos. Sci. 2009. V. 66, N 2. P. 495–507. DOI: 10.1175/2008jas2784.1.
31. Nath D., Chen W., Zelin C., Pogoreltsev A.I., Wei K. Dynamics of 2013 sudden stratospheric warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection // Sci. Report. 2016. V. 6, N 1. DOI: 10.1038/srep24174.
32. Harada Y., Goto A., Hasegawa H., Fujikawa N., Naoe H., Hirooka T. A major stratospheric sudden warming event in january 2009 // J. Atmos. Sci. 2010. V. 67, N 6. P. 2052–2069. DOI: 10.1175/2009jas3320.1.
33. Dörnbrack A., Pitts M., Poole L.R., Orsolini Y.J., Nishii Kazuaki, Nakamura H. The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model // Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2012. V. 12, N 8. P. 3659–3675. DOI: 10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012.
34. Tyrlis E., Manzini E., Bader J., Ukita J., Nakamura H., Matei D. Ural blocking driving extreme Arctic Sea ice loss, cold Eurasia, and stratospheric vortex weakening in autumn and early winter 2016–2017 // J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 2019. V. 124, N 21. P. 11313–11329. DOI: 10.1029/2019jd031085.
35. Rao J., Ren R., Chen H., Yu Y., Zhou Y. The stratospheric sudden warming event in February 2018 and its prediction by a climate system model // J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 2018. V. 123, N 23. DOI: 10.1029/2018jd028908.
36. Steenrod S.D., Rood R.B., Lamich D.J., Rosenfield J.E., Govindaraju R.C. The minor stratospheric warming of January 1989: Results from STRATAN, a stratospheric – tropospheric data assimilation system // Mon. Weather Rev. 1992. V. 120, N 1. P. 221–229. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120%3C0221:TMSWOJ%3E2.0.CO;2.
37. Limpasuvan V., Thompson D.W.J., Hartmann D.L. The life cycle of the Northern hemisphere sudden stratospheric warmings // J. Clim. 2004. V. 17, N 13. P. 2584–2596. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2584:tlcotn >2.0.co;2.
38. Boschat G., Simmonds I., Purich A., Cowan T., Pezza A.B. On the use of composite analyses to form physical hypotheses: An example from heat wave – SST associations // Sci. Rep. 2016. V. 6, N 1. P. 29599. DOI: 10.1038/srep29599.
39. Plumb R.A. On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves // J. Atmos. Sci. 1985. V. 42, N 3. P. 217–229. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(1985)042%3C0217:ottdpo%3E2.0.co;2.
40. Hersbach H., Bell B., Berrisford P., Hirahara Sh., Horányi A., Muñoz-Sabater J., Nicolas J., Peubey C., Radu R., Schepers D., Simmons A., Soci C., Abdalla S., Abellan X., Balsamo G., Bechtold P., Biavati G., Bidlot J., Bonavita M., de Chiara G., Dahlg-ren P., Dee D., Diamantakis M., Dragani R., Flemming J., Forbes R., Fuentes M., Geer A., Haimberger L., Healy S., Hogan R.J., Hólm E., Janisková M., Keeley S., Laloyaux P., Lopez Ph., Lupu C., Radnoti G., de Rosnay P., Rozum I., Vamborg F., Villaume S., Thépaut J.-N. The ERA5 global reanalysis // Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2020. V. 146, N 730. P. 1999–2049. DOI: 10.1002/qj.3803.
41. Vargin P.N., Koval A.V., Guryanov V.V. Arctic stratosphere dynamical processes in the winter 2021–2022 // Atmosphere. 2022. V. 13, N 10. P. 1550. DOI: 10.3390/atmos13101550.
42. Labitzke K. Interannual variability of the winter stratosphere in the Northern hemisphere // Mon. Weather Rev. 1977. V. 105, N 6. P. 762–770. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105%3C0762:ivotws%3E2.0.co;2.
43. Chen B., Cui H., Qiao F., Zhang Z., Sun X., Gao C., Song Y. Causes of the extreme cold event in December 2023 on Eastern China // Environ. Res. Commun. IOP Publishing. 2024. V. 6, N 8. P. 081002. DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6bf7.
44. Zhang P., Wu Y., Simpson I.R., Smith K.L., Zhang X., De B., Callaghan P. A stratospheric pathway linking a colder Siberia to Barents-Kara Sea ice loss // Sci. Adv. 2018. V. 4, N 7. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat6025.
45. Taguchi M. Is there a statistical connection between stratospheric sudden warming and tropospheric blocking events? // J. Atmos. Sci. 2008. V. 65, N 4. P. 1442–1454. DOI: 10.1175/2007jas2363.1.
46. Antokhina O.Yu., Antokhin P.N., Zorkal'tseva O.S., Gochakov A.O., Martynova Yu.V., Mordvinov V.I. Izmenenie otklika prizemnoi temperatury vozdukha na kolebaniya povtoryaemosti blokirovaniya v Atlantiko-Evroaziatskom sektore v osenne-zimnii period // Meteorol. i gidrol. 2023. N 11. P. 5–19. DOI: 10.52002/0130-2906-2023-11-5-19.