Vol. 35, issue 02, article # 9

Abstract:

The spatiotemporal variability of extreme climatic values and dangerous meteorological phenomena in Siberia in 1979–2020 and their trends by the end of the 21st century against the background of global climate change are studied based on ERA5 reanalysis data and observational data at meteorological stations. The combined analysis of the derived estimates of characteristics of these spatiotemporal variations makes it possible to identify the centers of "risk" in the region and to determine the tendencies in their development. The air temperature is found to be increased throughout the territory, while precipitation and wind speed, mainly in northern Western Siberia over 2011–2020. Extreme precipitation increases in summer throughout the region, with the exception of mountainous areas in its southeastern part. In addition, regions affected by heavy rainfall are becoming smaller in area and are located mainly in the south of the region and along its western border. The results of the INM-CM5.0 model calculations revealed the response of the regional climate system to the ongoing global changes: the tendencies towards an expansion in the number of extreme events in the region will persist until 2100.

Keywords:

extreme climatic values, dangerous meteorological phenomena, reanalysis data, observational data, mathematical simulation, Western Siberia

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